A new way to retire?

When the majority of baby boomers entered the job market in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s, employers settled into a labor land of plenty. And according to a Wharton School of Business report, the plethora of boomer workers allowed some human resource departments to grow lazy. If a worker quit, another boomer was lined up for the job, hat in hand.

The first boomers turned 60 this year. By 2012, Wharton reports, nearly 20 percent of all workers will be 55 and older, poised on the threshold of retirement. Some economists and futurists are predicting a severe labor shortage by 2015.

As with every prediction, this one might not become reality. So much can happen between then and now. But this Labor Day is an appropriate time to brainstorm some possible scenarios. History has demonstrated that where boomers go, massive cultural change follows.

In the 1980s, women boomers fought for equality and respect in the workplace. Minority boomers demanded the same. Workplace litigation charging sexual harassment and racial discrimination woke up human resource departments to the need for sensitivity and diversity training.

So however boomers do the retirement thing, it’s a safe bet they won’t do it in the same way as their parents and grandparents. Workplaces are wise to prepare by looking now at the demographics of their businesses and institutions.

How many boomers in their 50s and 60s are employed now in the workplace? What do they contribute? What will be lost if they retire en masse at 66 — the age most boomers will be able to collect Social Security? And what will happen if most choose early retirement? How will they be replaced?

The employment scenarios are not all bleak. Boomers who retire early from high-profile jobs might be willing to take jobs that demand strong work habits but little ego. They might be willing to take on service jobs and part-time positions in exchange for generous medical benefits. And they might duck back into their professions to help out in a pinch. Insurance claims adjustors, for instance, are in great demand following natural disasters.

Another scenario envisions boomers staying vital and active in their careers well into their 70s, changing cultural perceptions about what it means to be an older person both in society and in the workplace. U.S. Supreme Court justices, as well as a few high-profile journalists, such as Mike Wallace of “60 Minutes,” have aged wisely and well in the public eye. But these are notable exceptions.

And some say the boomers en-masse retirements will free up jobs for young people and for new immigrants, as well as liberate boomers to pursue community volunteer projects.

No one can say for sure. And predictions about future labor requirements often get it all wrong. The Wall Street Journal reported recently that in the mid-1980s, “the National Science Foundation predicted ‘looming shortfalls’ of some 675,000 scientists and engineers in the following two decades. They never materialized.”

The boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, have never done anything quietly. And they won’t leave their offices and factories without generating some culture-changing noise. Listen for it soon.