Hurricane season just beginning
The 2007 tropical storm and hurricane season officially began June 1 and ends Nov. 30 and activity is picking up in the Atlantic and Caribbean. It’s not uncommon to see several named storms early in the season, as was the case this year, and then a lull before an increase in named systems.
Many forecasters have already lowered their tropical storm and hurricane predictions, but the season doesn’t peak until early- to mid-September. There are usually eight additional storms between now and the end of September.
Over the last week, two named storms, Erin and Dean, caused widespread destruction. The remnants of Tropical Storm Erin brought massive flooding to central Oklahoma last Sunday. Over 11 inches of rain fell in a short period of time causing the Kingfisher Creek to rise 25 feet and top its banks.
Earlier this week, monster Hurricane Dean pounded Jamaica before moving across the Yucatan Peninsula, causing widespread damage. The storm reached Category 5 status as winds gusted to near 165 miles per hour. At press time, Dean was weakening as it moved over land, but would likely bring heavy rainfall and winds near 100 mph to parts of central Mexico.
The costliest hurricane to ever strike the U.S. was Katrina. Andrew and Camille, in 1992 and 1969, likewise caused more than $40 billion each in damage. Only 45 people died, however, from the effects of Category 5 Andrew. Camille’s heavy flooding took nearly 300 lives. The deadliest hurricanes to strike the mainland U.S. included the Category 4 unnamed storm, which in September 1900 killed more than 8,000 people in the Galveston, Texas area. The Lake Okeechobee, Fla., hurricane of September 1928 took over 2,000 lives, and another unnamed monster hurricane in early October of 1893 killed at least 1,800 people in Louisiana and Mississippi.
The deadliest hurricane in at least the last 200 years to strike the Americas was Hurricane Mitch in late October of 1998. More than 11,000 people were killed in Honduras and Nicaragua during the last six days of the month. Another 3,000 to 4,000 persons have never been accounted for, mostly in Honduras, where most major bridges and roadways and many villages were washed upward of 75 inches of rain – more than 6 feet – over a 145-hour period.
Mitch was a Category 5 hurricane carrying 180 mph winds when it slammed into the east coast of Central America. Gusts surpassed 220 miles per hour briefly on Oct. 26, 1998 along the Nicaraguan coastline.
Locally, we could see a few showers at times, but the rest of August and early September should be seasonably warm with drier than normal conditions. Don’t be too surprised if temperatures near or top 90 degrees either late this month or around the first week to 10 days in September. Much cooler weather may drop readings into the mid- to upper 30s, especially in the higher elevations, toward the middle to the end of next month.
If the La Niña cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event holds together in Pacific waters for a few more months before falling apart, this fall should turn a bit wetter and cooler than usual. Over the last few weeks, ocean temperatures near the equatorial regions have been cooling. Last year, we had a hot and dry summer that ultimately led to a very cool and wet late fall season. Stay tuned.