Winners can define states’ electoral maps for a decade

WASHINGTON – The Republicans’ expected gains next week go way beyond Congress. The GOP could capture new Senate or House majorities in a dozen to 18 states – along with critical new power to redraw district maps and influence elections for a decade to come.

Three of the biggest prizes are New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. All three states are expected to lose seats in Congress as a result of the 2010 census, and that’s sure to ignite boundary fights. A party’s congressman on the wrong end of redistricting can find the district he’s represented for years no longer exists.

Democrats have hopes, too. They aim to take away state Senate control in Michigan and Kentucky and the House in Texas and Tennessee. But none of the analysts contacted by the Associated Press predicted the Democrats would succeed in any of those states.

While most of the attention in next week’s midterm elections is focused on races for Congress and governor, results in scores of local, down-ticket races carry far-reaching implications, likely to dilute Democrats’ dominance in the once-every-10-years redrawing of political district boundaries for the U.S. House.

In most states, redistricting falls to the Legislature, which will draw new boundaries based on the 2010 census. The party in control has a huge advantage and can draw district lines that could determine whether Republicans or Democrats dominate a state’s congressional delegation for an entire decade, and possibly even control of the U.S. House itself.

Over the past four decades, Democrats have enjoyed at least a 2-to-1 advantage in redistricting authority, said Carl Klarner, a political scientist at Indiana State University. Klarner sees sweeping change in the Nov. 2 midterms, predicting Republicans will pick up 15 chambers, giving them control of 51 of the nation’s 99 state legislative chambers.