Divisive runoff likely for Egypt

CAIRO – Egypt’s two most polarizing presidential candidates appeared headed for a runoff election next month that will decide whether the nation will be ruled by an ascendant political Islam or return to the secularist spirit that defined Hosni Mubarak’s toppled police state.

Official results in Egypt’s first free presidential election are expected to be released in the coming days. But independent vote counts Friday indicated that Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi will battle Ahmed Shafiq, the last prime minister to serve Mubarak, in a June contest certain to enthrall the entire Middle East.

The stark matchup makes clear that despite a year of upheaval, the pillars of the past remain strong – and they are colliding over the future of the country. Morsi represents the Islamist ideals of the Brotherhood, which for decades was the most potent opposition to the old regime. Shafiq is the unabashed embodiment of the Mubarak era, a former fighter pilot who bragged during the campaign of shooting down Israeli warplanes in the 1973 war.

Egyptian media reported that Morsi led the first round of voting with 26 percent of the vote, followed by Shafiq with 23 percent.

The result was a setback for the young activists, largely liberal and secular, who ignited last year’s uprising that overthrew Mubarak. They failed to articulate a galvanizing vision for a country yearning for new leadership, leaving familiar ideologies to take on new resonance as Egyptians encountered military rule while common political ground diminished.

“I think we are on the verge of a new era. We trusted God, we trusted in the people, we trusted in our party,” said Essam Erian, a leading voice in the Brotherhood.

The surprises were the disappointing showings of one-time front-runners Abdel-Moneim Abolfotoh, a liberal Islamist who finished fourth with nearly 20 percent of the vote, and Amr Moussa, a former foreign minister and the savviest politician in the race, who came in fifth. The other thrilling turn was the unanticipated third-place finish for dark horse Hamdeen Sabahi, a socialist nationalist regarded by the cultural elite as the strongest alternative to Islamist and Mubarak remnants.

By late Friday evening, Sabahi had won large parts of Cairo. But even though he was estimated to get more than 20 percent of the vote, that did not appear to be enough to close the margin on Shafiq. Voter turnout was considered low at between 40 and 50 percent.

A Morsi win in the June 16-17 runoff would shape the contours of a political Islam evolving from the uprisings that ousted autocrats across the Middle East and North Africa. The Brotherhood has been blamed for dogmatism and a lack of inclusion but its leaders insist they are committed to civil liberties and protections for minorities.

Shafiq’s law-and-order campaign portrayed Islamists as a threat to freedom and promised to end months of demonstrations. He appealed to millions of Egyptians seeking stability after months of economic turmoil and rising crime. A Shafiq victory, however, would likely lead to renewed protests in Tahrir Square and further incite the country’s politics.

Shafiq left little doubt about his disdain for demonstrations and dissent: “The revolution has ended,” said his spokesman Ahmed Sarhan.

The outcome indicated that opinion polls did not reflect the political currents in a nation where about 40 percent of voters remained undecided until the last minute. The two days of voting this week – and the fervor around Friday’s vote count – were a testament to the fluidity of a drama that mesmerized the country. Thirteen candidates ran in a burst of political freedom that would have once been unthinkable.

Activists and young revolutionaries worried that Egypt is likely to endure years when civil rights will be endangered – either through a new constitution anchored in Islamic law or by the heavy hand of Shafiq, a retired Air Force general who was prime minister during the bloody crackdown on the protests that accelerated Mubarak’s demise.

“The results are depressing,” said Tarek Khouli, head of the April 6 democratic front, which has helped lead anti-government protests. “Many revolutionaries are thinking of boycotting the runoff. … We don’t accept either man as our president.”

This is the “worst-case scenario,” said Ahmed Khairy, spokesman for the liberal Free Egyptians Party. He called Shafiq a “military fascist” and Morsi an “Islamic fascist.”

No matter who is elected, the power of the president will be decided by the ruling military. The drafting of Egypt’s new constitution has been delayed and the generals have indicated they will amend the existing document to define the president’s authority and protect the army’s extensive military and business interests.

The military has vowed to hand power to a civilian government by July. The skeptics are many.