El Nino brings warmer ocean temperatures

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we now have a new El Nino.

The recent warming of ocean waters near the international date line and along the equator has prompted NOAA to say that we now have a very weak El Nino event. This is unusual as we typically see the warming near the West Coast of South America and westward along the equator. Right now, ocean temperatures in that region are normal.

 Australian scientists do not agree with NOAA. However, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology did upgrade their status from “neutral” to “watch” for this warm water phenomenon, but it’s still two levels down in their alert system from an official declaration of a new El Nino. Japanese scientists say it’s a “neutral cycle.”

Unfortunately, the warmer ocean temperatures should have little effect on California’s drought situation as the strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate. The Golden State should receive some much-needed moisture later this month, but it will be too little, too late. Many stations are now reporting precipitation totals below normal, especially in the southern part of the state. We’ll likely hear about more water restrictions in the coming months.

It’s also very possible that the high pressure ridge in the West will move east into the Great Plains later in the spring and summer, bringing much hotter and drier weather to that area where drought conditions are an issue as well.

In terms of our weather, we’ve enjoyed some very nice conditions with highs in the 60s earlier this week. However, it appears we’re going into a new six-week cycle that looks a bit wetter than normal from the middle of this month into early May.

The long-range computer models are indicating this change with a series of storm systems moving across the region over at least the next several weeks. It’s even possible that we may see some snow from mid-March into early April, but the winter of 2014-15 appears to have come to an end.