A Grip on Sports: We still aren’t sure how they did it but the Seahawks left Detroit with a win and that’s what matters
A GRIP ON SPORTS • When it was over, we couldn’t figure it out. How had the Seahawks won? How had they outscored Detroit on the road, in front of a rabid, loud, sure-the-Lions-are-going-to-be-great crowd? How had Geno Smith remained upright without the two starting tackles in front of him? How had the Hawks overcome a defense that failed on almost every third down? Then we saw one statistic.
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• Turnovers decide football games more often than any single statistic. OK, we made that up. There are a few stats with a higher correlation to winning than turnover margin, mainly because turnovers’ correlation varies as the edge goes higher. Especially in the NFL. In 2021, teams that grabbed two-or-more turnovers than their opponent won 86% of their games.
In other words, have a large turnover edge and you really have to be outplayed to lose.
Come to think of it, it came this close to happening to the Seahawks in Detroit on Sunday. Despite coming up with three turnovers, and not committing a single one, it took overtime for Seattle to prevail 37-31. But prevail the Hawks did. And that’s what matters after a week of angst-ridden reflection in living rooms all over the Northwest. And in the team’s Renton headquarters.
The 3-0 turnover margin was a little misleading in one way – and more than it seemed in another.
In the former category, we put Amon-Ra St. Brown’s fumble to end the first half. In fact, if the play had occurred at any time other than after the second-quarter clock had expired, we’re pretty sure replay would have turned it into an incomplete pass.
In the latter are the two others. Talk about turning the game around.
After scoring on the game’s first possession, Seattle had finished its other four first-half drives with two missed field goals and two punts. To start the second half, the Hawks trailed 14-7 and Detroit had the ball. But David Montgomery put it on the ground, Jarran Reed finally corralled it and the Seahawks’ offense was set up at the Detroit 23.
Two plays later the Hawks were in the endzone.
Short fields can make up for a lot of woes. And, despite Geno Smith throwing for 328 yards behind the makeshift line, the Hawk offense was woeful at times. Especially third down. Seattle converted five all game – and one fourth – out of 11 chances. But that stat didn’t matter. Mainly because, midway through the fourth quarter and the Hawks up 24-21, corner Tre Brown made it moot with two key plays.
He blitzed and sacked Jared Goff on the first. That set up the next one, when he gathered in Goff’s misplaced toss and returned it 40 yards for a score.
Two second-half turnovers, 10 points. And that was only enough to get Seattle into overtime. From there it was up to Smith.
He and the offense came through, putting together a game-ending drive of 75 yards on nine plays, culminating in Tyler Lockett’s successful dive for the left pylon from 6-yards out.
Instead of looking at an 0-2 mark, with an awful home loss to the Rams followed by a deflating road loss to Detroit, the Seahawks are 50/50. Not impressive in either game, to be sure, but still, with two games left tonight, they are bunched with 12 others teams with that record in a parity-driven league.
It could be worse.
• Speaking of worse, the Mariners’ sweep at the hands of National League West champion Los Angeles was. The 6-1 decision finished off a disappointing 2-4 homestand. The M’s are no longer in a wild-card spot, they trail in the A.L. West by 2.5 games and have just 13 games remaining.
At least the weather is nice. And they are headed to Oakland for their final three games against the 46-103 A’s. If ever a sweep was in order, this is it. The last 10 contests feature the West-leading Astros (three) and the Rangers (seven), the team just above them in the standings.
It’s time to make sure the clutch is working, ignore the brakes, jam the pedal to the metal and burn rubber. It’s a sprint to the finish line.
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WSU: A seemingly predetermined rout allowed the Cougars to play many of the less-often-used guys. And to show off the future. Greg Woods delves into that this morning. … He also covers the Cougs’ rise to 21st in the Associated Press poll. … The S-R has its weekly look at how players’ with local connections did in the NFL, leading off with Gardner Minshew’s relief appearance helping the Colts to victory. … Elsewhere in the Pac-12 and the nation, with eight teams still in the rankings, we have quite a few poll stories to pass along, something Jon Wilner covers in his rewind of the weekend. There are three matchups featuring Top-25 teams this Saturday. … How did the conference do in the nonconference? Darn good. Here’s an Athletic ranking of who did best. … Washington moved up to eighth, and put the Big Ten on notice with its 41-7 victory. The Huskies host Cal this week. … In one of the Top-25 matchups, No. 10 Oregon hosts Colorado, ranked 19th, and is favored by three touchdowns. John Canzano wrote yesterday what we intended to do this week – and most certainly did it better. It’s ironic the Ducks, who changed the face of college football about a decade ago, are Deion Sanders’ first Pac-12 game as shiny-new-bauble Colorado’s coach. … The guy who replaced Canzano at the Oregonian, Bill Oram, has his thoughts on the showdown in Eugene. … The player who knocked the Buffs’ Travis Hunter out with a cheap shot needs to apologize – and probably should be suspended as long as Hunter misses, which could be weeks. … Despite the game being in Pullman, No. 14 Oregon State is favored over the Cougars, though by less than a field goal. … Did you know 11th-ranked Utah has returned an interception for a touchdown at least once each of the past 20 years? … His 1-2 team is not ranked, of course, and it sure looks like Troy Taylor’s rebuild of Stanford might be tougher than expected. … Arizona will be coming off a win as it travels to face the Cardinal. … No. 5 USC is at Arizona State on Saturday night in a game featuring a matchup of brothers. … Did you know it has been 10 years since the Trojans fired Lane Kiffin on the LAX tarmac? … UCLA, ranked 22nd, heads to Salt Lake City and brings a punishing running game with it.
Gonzaga: Yes, BYU is no longer in the WCC. But through a majority of time in the conference, Dave Rose was the Cougar head coach. He will be inducted into the Utah Sports Hall of Fame tonight.
EWU: We missed this Sunday morning – sorry, Jesse – but we noticed it today. Jesse Tinsley had a photo gallery from Eastern’s win over Southeastern Louisiana. … Elsewhere in the Big Sky, it was close but Montana had some things to take away from its win over Ferris State.
Seahawks: Of course, we have the Times’ story from Michigan but more importantly we can pass along Dave Boling’s thoughts on the game. The one that stood out to us? “They probably should have lost this game, and at times they seemed on the verge, but they found ways to win – maybe the biggest lesson of all.” In the NFL, it is all that matters. … Call him “Big Play Tre.” … Resilience is hard to quantify. But it’s important. … How much did Bobby Wagner set the foundation for the win? … There are always grades. … And things to learn.
Mariners: Logan Gilbert has been the best starter much of the season. He wasn’t good enough Sunday in the 6-1 loss. … OK, what is the M’s philosophy on bunting? Not the playoff type, the put-the-ball-on-the-ground ones.
Kraken: Camp starts this week with Seattle eager to show off the youngsters in the pipeline.
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• Our sports viewing habits will have to change over the next decade. We know it. But it is not easy for those of us who are, let’s say, not all that young anymore. That’s why we try to keep up on all the trends. We want as much time as possible to change. This story, which we came across this morning, helped us understand the latest battle in the war between cable and streaming. And how the two adversaries may become partners in the future. Until later …