Big Sky predictions: Expect Montana schools at the top, but Idaho could surprise

Considering the degree to which turnover has become the norm in college football, especially at the FCS level, the Big Sky Conference can be considered wide open once again this season.

Yes, Montana State is coming off a loss in the national title game – the Big Sky has produced the runner-up but not a champion in four of the last seven years – but success breeds succession, as six Bobcats players transferred to FBS programs since January. That creates some gaps at key spots.

A lack of success can just as easily be turned around, though, if a coach can win over enough returners and woo enough talent to replenish a roster. Sacramento State, which signed a whopping 34 players from FBS schools this offseason, will test that approach this season under first-year head coach Brennan Marion.

So, the simplest way to approach a season prediction is by pedigree, both of program and of coach. What follows adheres to that as its overriding metric, though other factors may at times tip the scales in a different direction.

The favorites: Montana State, UC Davis, Montana

Betting on Brent Vigen is the surest bet in this league, as the fifth-year Montana State coach has produced teams with a 47-10 record and nothing but first- or second-place finishes in the Big Sky so far. They return all-league running back Adam Jones (1,172 yards in 2024), whose production will almost certainly go up after the Bobcats graduated Walter Payton Award-winning quarterback Tommy Mellott and lost Scottre Humphrey (a 1,386-yard rusher) to New Mexico. Replacing Mellott is a big ask, but there’s little reason to doubt Vigen can do it.

The UC Davis Aggies are a favorite as well after a second-place finish under first-year head coach Tim Plough in 2024, and because they lost just two transfers to FBS schools while adding eight former FBS players themselves. They return All-America defensive back Rex Connors, the Big Sky’s preseason defensive MVP; the biggest question is how they replace Miles Hastings, who threw for 4,493 yards last year, the program’s single-season record. That task will belong to Caden Pinnick, the redshirt freshman who won the starting job in camp.

Montana deserves the benefit of any doubt because head coach Bobby Hauck finds a way to win, amassing a 40-15 record over the last four seasons, each of which the Grizzlies reached the playoffs. They return 1,100-yard rusher Eli Gillman and added all-purpose player Michael Wortham from EWU, who should thrive in a program that has a long history of success in special teams play.

Dark horse: Idaho

The Vandals lost 20 players to FBS schools in the transfer portal, including seven who followed former head coach Jason Eck to New Mexico. But Eck won 26 games in three years in Moscow and re-established a winning culture, so the program Thomas Ford Jr. is inheriting is one with a promising track record. Ford also brought in eight FBS transfers, including redshirt sophomore quarterback Joshua Wood, a former EWU recruit and Fresno State player who has already been named the starter.

Taking a step back: Weber State

Weber State won 10 games in four of six seasons between 2017 and 2022, but in two years under Mickey Mental they’ve won just 10 games total and missed the playoffs each season. They lost nine players to FBS schools in the offseason, suggesting that the talent may have been there. Without a clear option at quarterback and a daunting September schedule, the Wildcats look primed for another regression.