MLB draft preview: What will the Mariners do with the No. 3 pick?
SEATTLE – In a stunning turn of good fortune, the Seattle Mariners won the No. 3 pick in the 2025 MLB draft during the draft lottery held at the winter meetings in Dallas last December. That’s a 12-spot jump from where the Mariners were projected to pick.
Scott Hunter, Mariners VP of amateur scouting, figured that having a top-three pick would lend itself to a smooth evaluation process this year.
It’s been anything but.
Because there isn’t a consensus list of top-five talents, scouting this draft class has been as unpredictable and challenging as any for Hunter, now in his ninth year overseeing the Mariners’ draft plans.
The Mariners began their full-fledged draft-prep meetings Wednesday, with Hunter and all of the organization’s national scouts and crosscheckers in town. The debate was expected to continue for days about whom they should take at No. 3.
Hunter said the Mariners are considering seven or eight prospects with their first selection.
“It’s going to be, I don’t want to say a heated battle in our room, but I don’t think we’re going to have, when we walk out of there, a full consensus of, like, ‘This is our guy,’ ” he said.
The first day of the draft is July 13. Here are eight prospects the Mariners are eyeing with their No. 3 pick:
Left-handed college pitchers
The Mariners have a strong track record of developing pitching, and because most of the top prospects in their system are hitters, it would make sense for Seattle to restock the farm with another high-end arm.
College left-handers Kade Anderson, Jamie Arnold and Liam Doyle are all “in play” for the Mariners at No. 3.
Anderson threw a complete-game shutout at the College World Series to help lead LSU to the national championship, and many expect him to go to the Washington Nationals with the No. 1 pick. If he falls, the Mariners could pounce.
Arnold, a 6-foot-1 lefty from Florida State, is considered a polished prospect who could advance quickly through the minor leagues. The Los Angeles Angels, who hold the No. 2 pick in front of the Mariners, look like an intriguing fit for Arnold.
Doyle, a 6-2 lefty from Tennessee, has the best fastball of any pitcher in the draft and he led all Division I pitchers in strikeout rate this year (15.4 per nine innings). He’ll be tempting at No. 3.
College bat with local ties
Aiva Arquette spent his first two seasons of college playing here for the Washington Huskies, leading the team with a .325 batting average and a .574 slugging percentage as a sophomore second baseman in 2024.
He transferred to powerhouse Oregon State and helped lead the Beavers to the CWS this year.
A 6-5, 220-pound shortstop, he slashed .354/.461/.654 with a career-high 19 home runs and a career-low 16.5% strikeout rate for Oregon State. Baseball America says he’s a “slam dunk” top-10 pick in this draft.
High school right-hander
In Jerry Dipoto’s decade as the head of baseball operations, the Mariners have never taken a high school pitcher in the first round.
That could change in this draft. Seth Hernandez is that enticing.
Historically, high school right-handed pitchers selected in the first round do not have a good track record in the majors, and thus prep right-handers are considered the riskiest bet in the draft.
But the Mariners’ thinking on prep pitchers shifted last year after they used their second-round pick on Ryan Sloan, a 6-4, 220-pound right-hander out of an Illinois high school.
The Mariners have been thrilled with how Sloan, now pitching in Low-A Modesto, has taken to the organization’s pitching process. Things have gone so well with Sloan that the Mariners are open to a similar gamble on Hernandez, a 6-4 right-hander out of Corona (Calfornia) High.
Hernandez, who has committed to play at Vanderbilt, is rated as the No. 2 prospect in this draft class by Baseball America. Hernandez’s fastball sits in the upper 90s and one talent evaluator who has watched Hernandez closely gave his changeup an “80” on the traditional 20-to-80 scouting scale.
“It’s clear he’s one of the most talented prep arms in the last decade or so, with the sort of upside that puts his name in the same phylum as Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore and Jackson Jobe,” Baseball America wrote. “Hernandez is a standout athlete with a 6-foot-4, 195-pound frame and throws with a clean delivery and three-quarters slot. If he weren’t a pitcher he would be a legitimate pro prospect as a hitter and shortstop.”
High school hitters
The No. 1 prospect on Baseball America’s board is Ethan Holliday, a 6-4 shortstop at Stillwater (Oklahoma) High with a strong family pedigree.
Holliday’s brother, Jackson, is the Baltimore Orioles’ second baseman who was drafted No. 1 overall in 2022. Their dad is former MLB slugger Matt Holliday, a seven-time All-Star who hit 316 homers over his 15-year career.
“Ethan is built much more like his father than Jackson, with a hulking 6-foot-4, 195-pound frame and a different shade to his game,” Baseball America wrote. “Holliday has tremendous ease with his left-handed swing, which is smooth and powerful and comes with good rhythm and balance in the box.”
Baseball America’s No. 3 prospect in this class is Eli Willits, a 6-1 switch-hitting shortstop who is also from Oklahoma and also has a father, Reggie, who played in the majors.
Willits doesn’t turn 18 until December.
“While there are players in the 2025 class with louder individual tools or bigger power upside than Willits, it’s difficult to point to another player who has a game as well-rounded,” Baseball America wrote.
“He’s in the mix to be the first overall pick. If that happens, he’ll be the youngest (No. 1 overall) player ever drafted.”
Another shortstop worth monitoring is JoJo Parker, an 18-year-old left-handed hitter from Purvis, Mississippi, who is committed to Mississippi State.
JoJo’s twin brother, Jacob, is an outfielder who is also a highly regarded prep prospect in this class.