Analysis: Five pressing questions for the Mariners entering season’s second half
As their season reached its midway point, the Mariners found themselves in playoff position. They’re not exactly where they want to be, though.
The Mariners hold the third and final wild-card spot in the American League playoff picture. That’s the encouraging development for a team determined to play meaningful baseball in October.
The bad news: No matter what they do lately, the Mariners are still looking up at the surging Houston Astros in the AL West, and that elusive division title feels about as out of reach as ever.
As we wrap up a seesaw first half that has featured high highs (world, meet Cal Raleigh) and some low lows (pitching injuries), Seattle Times beat writers Adam Jude and Tim Booth answer five pressing questions facing the Mariners going into the season’s second half.
Let’s get to ‘em:
1. What will it take for the Mariners to (finally) overtake the Astros in the AL West?
Jude: The Astros look like the best team in baseball right now, and it’s fair to wonder if anyone in the division is capable of tracking them down. The Mariners will try to add an impact bat ahead of the July 31 trade deadline, but will that be enough to chase down their first division title since 2001? To close the gap, the Mariners need their run-prevention roots to return to form. The starting rotation is finally healthier, and this staff is talented enough to pave the way for a second-half charge. As a consolation, the M’s are in the thick of the wild card race, and their main priority is to simply get back in the postseason any way they can.
Booth: Win the AL West (thanks, tips). What I mean is take advantage of the games remaining against what is a mediocre division at best. The Astros are not the Astros of the past – at least until they get aggressive and make their own deals around the deadline. There are still six games left head-to-head with Houston. There are eight left with the Angels and seven with the Athletics, and the M’s face the Rangers just once more after this weekend. Dominate your own division – go 16-8 in those 24 games – and then capitalize on the soft spots remaining with games still to come against White Sox, Rockies and Pirates at home and the Orioles on the road. That’s the math that will allow the M’s to at least stay close enough to potentially leap the Astros, if they stumble.
2. What will it take for Raleigh to overtake Aaron Judge in the AL MVP race?
Jude: If votes were cast today, Judge would probably run away with the AL MVP award. Judge is putting together one of the greatest seasons in baseball history, on pace for 11.6 WAR (via Baseball Reference). In most seasons, Raleigh’s historic first half would have him firmly at the forefront of the MVP conversation. That said, Raleigh has earned his place in the conversation with Judge. His value should get a significant boost because he plays the sport’s most important position – and he does it better than anyone and plays virtually every day. For now, let’s just celebrate that Raleigh has become one of biggest and best stories in baseball.
Booth: The timing of this idea works with the sequel about to come out. Remember Donald the heckler from “Happy Gilmore,” who was called to action by Shooter McGavin, really wanted to have a meal at Sizzler and eventually took out Happy with his vehicle on the 18th hole, and it still didn’t work? Not advocating for anyone to go that route or pull a “Gillooly” (look it up, kids), but if Judge keeps at this rate, it’s going to take something like a stint on the injured list or a protracted slump for Raleigh to have a chance. On top of that, Raleigh needs to stay on this unprecedented pace for him to move from being the chaser to the favorite. Raleigh is on pace for an 8.9 bWAR season, which would be the highest by a catcher since 1948. It’ll be metrics like that and the fact he plays such a demanding position that’ll at least keep the MVP debate going for a while.
3. What do you make of the Mariners’ offense after 81 games?
Jude: Exasperating, in a word. You could also call the Mariners a capable offense: They’re capable of being a top-five lineup in the game; they’re also capable of making you turn off your TV in disgust and proclaiming that you’ll never watch another game again. They’re just inconsistent, and with a lineup filled with hitters with a history of streaky performances, maybe that’s to be expected. When they’re good, they’re really good. When they’re bad, they’re really bad. Those downturns are exacerbated because they play their home games in the most challenging ballpark for hitters. That’s not to excuse the lack of production at times. That’s just the reality, and that’s why we’ll probably continue to see such up-and-down stretches from this offense.
Booth: “Cal and the Middling Bats,” might be a good band name. I guess the first half has proved you can skate by as a slightly above .500 ballclub with one bat that’s in the MVP conversation, a couple others performing adequately and then a whole bunch of inconsistency. The biggest boost would be if Julio Rodriguez engages his past summer heat waves and starts slugging the way he has previously. The cutdown in strikeouts is great, but the M’s need more than a singles hitter who occasionally puts one in the gap or clears the fence from their center fielder. Get some slugging from Julio, find a little more consistency in other parts of the lineup – a healthy and hitting Luke Raley would be a major boost – and let Raleigh and J.P. Crawford do their thing. If all that comes together, maybe there is enough offense already here to be more consistent in the second half.
4. What’s the biggest concern with the Mariners’ pitching staff?
Jude: A few weeks ago, the answer here might have been the bullpen. But Matt Brash’s return to his 2023 form, along with Andres Munoz’s dominance, the emergence of Carlos Vargas and Gabe Speier’s steadiness, have stabilized those back-end roles. Health, then, has to be the real concern for the starting rotation, because that was the team’s biggest overall concern in the first two months of the season. There have been encouraging performances of late from Logan Gilbert and George Kirby – and the M’s need many more of them if they have any chance of chasing down the Astros. Bryce Miller’s short-term availability remains uncertain after he had a platelet-rich plasma injection in his throwing elbow three weeks ago, and the Mariners can’t afford to take any more hits to their rotation.
Booth: I’m not feeling great about the trend we’ve seen of late from Luis Castillo. Take away a real gem he threw June 1 against Minnesota, it wasn’t the best June from Castillo. He has a 5.73 ERA and allowed eight homers in his past four starts. It just hasn’t felt Castillo-like lately and the pitching still predicates where this team will go. (Castillo answered the bell with a one-run six-inning start to the second half against the Rangers on Sunday).
5. What’s the Mariners’ biggest need at the trade deadline – and will they be able to swing a deal?
Jude: The Mariners, according to industry sources, have had preliminary conversations with other clubs about adding a corner infielder and a high-leverage reliever. Under Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander, the M’s have been as active as any MLB club ahead of the July 31 trade deadline and it’s reasonable to expect they will be again. The Mariners have the prospects to put together a competitive package for anyone on the market this summer, and they have support from ownership to increase payroll to make that happen in the right scenario.
Booth: Corner infield is everyone’s favorite spot to look at, and probably the easiest place to find options. But the two names most commonly mentioned – Eugenio Suarez and Ryan O’Hearn – would both be rentals and we know how much Dipoto cherishes his club control. So let’s go off the board a little and suggest an outfielder. It’s been a streaky season for Randy Arozarena and who knows if Victor Robles does make it back in September as hoped. Someone like Taylor Ward would fit very nicely for the M’s, plus he comes with a little bit of that club control and maybe be a defensive upgrade in the short-term. Unless the M’s want to package some of their pitching surplus and try to pull together a bigger blockbuster, this feels like a trade deadline that will be more incremental than massively impactful.