Bob Maynard, investment manager for the Public Employee Retirement System of Idaho, told lawmakers today that the outlook for stocks in the coming year is positive. Noting that he came to Idaho in 1992 and for a decade before that had a similar job in Alaska, Maynard said, “I don’t remember in the last 40 years where I have ever seen a consensus among market participants that with both economic and capital markets are as satisfactory as people are now saying. I can’t find a reasonable point of view that says we’re going to have a disaster in the next year. All the known unknowns appear to be under control, or if there’s a danger, the danger is more like late 2019.”
He added, “That doesn’t mean the unknown unknowns can’t crush us.”
But Maynard, who is among an array of presenters offering input on the outlook for the Idaho economy for the next 18 months to the Legislature’s Economic Outlook & Revenue Assessment Committee, gave a positive report. “There don’t seem to be any bubbles apparent looking forward,” he said. He said U.S. equities are likely to rise about 8 to 9 percent, and U.S. bonds should be getting about their yield level, while the U.S. dollar should be moderately higher and commodities have bottomed. Emerging markets, he said, likely will follow commodities.
In the past year, the PERSI fund earned 17.4 percent on its investments, Maynard reported.