Group Reports What’s Hot On TV And What’s Not

Months before the launch of the fall TV season, long before you even get a glimpse of the 34 new series ahead, at least one seer has passed judgment on all that awaits you.

And odds are, he’ll be right.

A man busily evaluating television for 15 years, Steve Sternberg is senior partner at the BJK&E Media Group, whose annual “Prime Time Fall Preview” claims an accuracy rate of 91 percent.

This report is more than a divining of what’s (probably) hot, what’s (probably) not. The Media Group, which buys advertising time for such clients as Taco Bell and American Airlines, is concerned instead with pinpointing the shows most likely to be watched by those viewers each client wants to reach with its commercials.

But let’s play a little “what’s hot, what’s not” anyway.

Behold the five series, all sitcoms, to which Sternberg assigns his highest grade, “passing.” (By this, he means shows expected to win their time periods with at least a 19 percent household share and to hold on to at least 80 percent of their respective lead-in program’s audience.)

ABC’s only such series is “Hudson Street,” scheduled for Tuesdays at 8:30 p.m. Tony Danza plays a divorced New Jersey detective sharing custody of his young son with his ex-wife. Meanwhile, he strikes up a relationship with a brassy reporter who covers the police beat.

CBS will have not one but three new “passing” series, according to Sternberg. They include “Almost Perfect” (Sundays at 8:30 p.m.), with Nancy Travis and Kevin Kilner as two successful overachievers who accidently meet and fall in love; “Can’t Hurry Love” (Mondays at 8:30 p.m.), with Nancy McKeon as a placement coordinator at a New York City personnel agency; and “Bless This House” (Wednesdays at 8 p.m.), a domestic comedy with Andrew (formerly Dice) Clay and Cathy Moriarty at the top of their lungs.

NBC should score with “The Single Guy” (Thursdays at 8:30 p.m.), starring Jonathan Silverman as a bachelor whose married friends want to hook him up with the perfect mate.

Here are a few more predictions from the BJK&E crystal ball:

ABC, which won the 1994-95 season, will corral four nights (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) to do it again, finishing next season with a razor-thin victory over NBC.

NBC will win only Thursday, but big, with runner-up status every other night.

This year’s woebegone CBS will finish next season a much stronger third, separated from top-ranked ABC by only about a half-million households.

Meanwhile, don’t bet the baby’s college fund on ABC’s “Drew Carey Show,” CBS’ Montel Williams drama “Matt Waters,” NBC’s action drama “JAG” or Fox’s sci-fi “Space,” just to name a few. These are among the newcomers Sternberg brands “doubtful.”

How do Sternberg and his colleagues figure this stuff out?

“It’s not just guesswork or sorcery,” he insists. Nor is it simply screening tapes and crunching numbers, although both those activities are part of the process.