Handicapping The Grammy Contenders

We’ll believe it when we see it.

For all the hype about new, cutting-edge Grammy Awards, chances are Mariah Carey will be scooping up the most statuettes this week. And nobody has confused her with P.J. Harvey or Liz Phair.

Yet Carey’s clear victory in last fall’s Diva Duel - besting Whitney Houston, Janet Jackson and Madonna in a head-to-head match on the charts - was no small feat. Some critics even believe her work has shown some real growth. So it’s likely she’ll be rewarded when the Grammys are announced Wednesday.

Here’s some handicapping of the top Grammy races:

Record Of The Year: The Mariah Carey & Boyz II Men duet on “One Sweet Day” is the weakest of a strong set of nominees that include Seal, TLC, Coolio and Joan Osborne. No matter. It will win because it’s the sort of omnipresent, “safe” hit conservative Grammy voters love.

Album Of The Year: Osborne and Pearl Jam are the best, and don’t count out Michael Jackson. Despite his descent into tabloid hell, the “HIStory” album chronicles a pretty impressive decade and a half. Yet this category looks like another win for Carey.

Song Of The Year: Here’s where voters get a little daring, and pick between Osborne and Alanis Morissette. Osborne’s “One of Us” is deserving, but “You Oughta Know” is one of those rare songs that perfectly tapped into a public mood.

New Artist: Grammy voters can’t ignore the truckloads of albums sold by Hootie & the Blowfish. Besides, Morissette and Osborne will cancel each other out.

Female Pop Vocal Performance: No clearer evidence that this is the year of the woman. Nominees Carey, Osborne, Dionne Farris, Annie Lennox, Bonnie Raitt and Vanessa Williams all are represented by fine work. At the risk of sounding like a broken record (scratched CD?), give it to Carey.

Male Pop Vocal Performance: No clearer evidence that this is the year of the woman. Seal tops a weak field.

Rock Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocal: “Hotel California” going up against “Kashmir”? Is this a time warp? Blues Traveler’s breakout hit “Run-Around” is easily the most deserving.

Rock Album: Pearl Jam and Neil Young test their friendship by going head to head in this category. Chris Isaak’s album was underrated and unjustly ignored, Morissette’s overrated. She’ll probably win, unless a bias against female rockers gives this to Pearl Jam.

Country Song: Shania Twain’s “Any Man of Mine” bests Vince Gill.

Country Album: Shania’s a likely winner again, but here’s a couple of cheers for the Mavericks and Dwight Yoakam.