Democrats in hunt, poll says

BOISE – Republican and Democratic candidates in two major Idaho political races are virtually tied, according to a new statewide poll of 625 voters who said they would likely cast a ballot Nov. 7.

In the governor’s race, U.S. Rep. C.L. “Butch” Otter leads Democrat Jerry Brady 44 percent to 43 percent, in the poll conducted Oct. 23-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C.

The survey, done for the Idaho Statesman and KIVI-TV, has a margin of error of 4 percentage points, meaning the numbers for both candidates could be off by that much in either direction, and making the race too close to call. Twelve percent of voters were undecided, while 2 percent said they’d choose third-party candidates, pollsters found.

In the 1st District congressional race for the seat Otter is vacating, Republican Bill Sali, an eight-term state legislator, leads 39 percent to 37 percent over Democrat Larry Grant, a former Micron Technology Inc. executive.

The margin of error for that question was 6 percentage points – again too close to call.

Twenty-one percent of likely voters were undecided.

Third-party candidates got about 3 percent support, the poll found.

Idaho hasn’t had a Democrat in the governor’s mansion or in Congress since 1994.

Democrats are outnumbered 4-to-1 in the state Legislature, and President Bush won more than two-thirds of state ballots in 2004.

Some observers say the survey results indicate the minority party has narrowed the gap this year, as Republicans – including President Bush and members of Congress – are being criticized over their handling of the war in Iraq and in several scandals.

“At this point in a typical campaign, Idaho Democrats are dispirited and looking for moral victories,” said Jim Weatherby, a political science professor emeritus who has overseen polling at Boise State University. “This time, it looks like they may actually pull off some major victories,” he told the Statesman.

Mason-Dixon pollsters asked prospective voters whether they recognized the names of the candidates, and then how they would cast their ballot if the election were being held that day.

Republicans said they’d be working to rally party members to prevent a Democratic victory in any of the Idaho races. They conceded that negative sentiment about Republicans had reached Idaho from the nation’s capital.

“We’ll be working very hard to spread those numbers between now and Election Day,” said state GOP chairman Kirk Sullivan of the new poll.

Democrats were feeling emboldened, if wary. “It’s been so long since a Democrat’s been in this position, nobody knows what to do,” Grant said.

In other poll results:

“Outgoing Gov. Jim Risch, the GOP candidate for lieutenant governor, led his Democratic rival Larry LaRocco 45 percent to 36 percent, with 18 percent undecided, according to the poll. The poll had a margin of error of 4 percentage points in that race, which did not affect Risch’s lead.

“Jana Jones, Democratic candidate for superintendent of public instruction, had a 40 percent to 37 percent lead over Republican Tom Luna, according to the survey. Twenty-three percent were undecided, the poll showed. That survey had a margin of error of 4 percentage points in that race, making it too close to call.