How Gonzaga’s loss to Saint Mary’s impacted NCAA Tournament projections

Gonzaga’s setback against Saint Mary’s didn’t do much damage to the Zags’ analytics and NET ranking – losses against quality opponents rarely do – but it was certainly noticeable in the latest bracket projections.

The Zags (16-6, 7-2 West Coast Conference) are No. 27 in the NET after being 26th last Wednesday. They slipped just two spots to No. 21 in KenPom’s rankings.

A week ago, Gonzaga was in the field in a few of the dozens of bracket projections online and was often listed in the First Four Out in many others. As of Monday, finding the Zags in a bracket was a fruitless search, and they’re generally in the Next Four Out or what ESPN’s Joe Lunardi referred to as his next four after the Next Four Out.

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports doesn’t have Gonzaga in his First Four Out or his first eight bubble teams.

“Maybe the most impactful rivalry game of the weekend came at Gonzaga, where Saint Mary’s handed Gonzaga its second home loss of the season 64-62,” Palm wrote Monday. “The Zags have not missed the NCAA Tournament since 1998, but they are in danger of seeing that streak come to an end. They have played five Quad 1 games and lost all of them, as well as suffering a Quad 2 defeat at Santa Clara. Gonzaga’s best win came at home to San Francisco.

“The Bulldogs only have two more chances to impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee – at Kentucky on Saturday and the rematch at Saint Mary’s to end the regular season. Don’t let their gaudy NET ranking fool you. Those are both must-wins at this point if Gonzaga hopes for an at-large bid.”

All of that analysis becomes moot if Gonzaga manages to the West Coast Conference Tournament, which carries an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Palm’s latest bracket has Saint Mary’s and Washington State as nine seeds. Boise State, led by former GU assistant Leon Rice, is a seven seed and Eastern Washington is a 15 matching up against No. 2 Arizona, guided by former Zags assistant Tommy Lloyd.

Gonzaga is 0-4 against teams (Saint Mary’s, UConn, Purdue and San Diego State) in Palm’s bracket. UConn and Purdue are No. 1 seeds and San Diego State is a five seed.

The Zags are the only team in the NET top 40 without a Quad 1 victory. No. 41 Wake Forest, with Gonzaga transfers Hunter Sallis and Efton Reid, is 0-3 in Quad 1 games.

No. 8 Auburn snagged its first Quad 1 win at Ole Miss on Saturday.

Kentucky, which entertains GU on Saturday, is No. 26 in the NET with a 2-4 mark against Quad 1 and a 3-1 record vs. Quad 2. The Wildcats are No. 27 in KenPom.

Gonzaga faces San Francisco on Feb. 29 at the Chase Center (neutral site) prior to visiting Saint Mary’s in Moraga on March 2. The Dons, who visit the Gaels on Feb. 20, are No. 65 in the NET and currently would qualify as a Quad 2 opponent. USF would need to be in the top 50 to become a Quad 1 foe.

The Zags received two points, courtesy of one media member voting GU 24th, in the last Associated Press poll. Saint Mary’s received 73 points, 50 behind No. 25 New Mexico.

UConn and Purdue remained 1-2. Arizona is No. 8, Kentucky dropped seven spots to No. 17 and San Diego State is No. 24. Boise State received 43 points and Washington State six.

UConn and Purdue also top the USA Today coaches’ poll. The Gaels just missed the top 25. Gonzaga received six points, Boise State seven and Saint Mary’s 57.