Best of the West: Gonzaga takes flawed resume into WCC play, where massive downside risk looms
In baseball, hitters who strike out four times in a single game are said to have earned the golden sombrero.
For Gonzaga basketball, four whiffs in a single season could carry a different term: NIT.
The Zags were winless in four games against Quadrant I opponents during the nonconference portion of their 2023-24 schedule, losing to Purdue, Connecticut, San Diego State and Washington.
Typically a lock for the NCAA Tournament at this point in the season, they are instead navigating treacherous waters.
Their position in the all-important NET ranking (No. 57) is outside the normal range for at-large bids and one spot below … wait for it … Washington State.
What’s more, the West Coast Conference schedule that begins this week brings heavy downside risk for the Zags: Victories will do little to strengthen their resume while any loss could carry significant damage.
One reason for Gonzaga’s fragile existence: Early season wins over UCLA and USC are providing no rocket fuel – both Los Angeles schools are below .500.
The Zags had four chances to collect a Quadrant I victory and whiffed each time: They lost on neutral courts to Purdue and Connecticut, on the road to Washington and at home to San Diego State last week.
To be clear, their path to March Madness isn’t blocked. If they win the WCC Tournament, an automatic bid awaits.
But unlike previous years, the Zags cannot rest easy knowing they have secured an at-large berth if something goes wrong in Las Vegas.
1. Arizona (10-3/1-1 Pac-12)
Last week: 1
Results: won at Cal 100-81, lost at Stanford 100-82
NET ranking: No. 4
Next up: vs. Colorado (Thursday)
Comment: The Wildcats only dropped one spot in the NET after their lopsided defeat at Stanford. Why? Ugly as it looked, the result counted as a Quadrant 2 loss, which has limited impact. The key for Arizona: Avoiding any Quadrant III or IV defeats in conference play.
2. Brigham Young (12-1)
Last week: 3
Results: beat Wyoming 94-68
NET ranking: No. 2
Next up: vs. Cincinnati (Saturday)
Comment: Last season, the Cougars were 103rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per the Pomeroy advanced metrics. This season, they’re sixth. But will that improvement hold against all the stout defenses in the Big 12?
3. Colorado State (13-1/1-0 MW)
Last week: 4
Results: beat Adams State 106-61 and New Mexico 76-68
NET ranking: No. 17
Next up: at Utah State (Saturday)
Comment: CSU point guard Isaiah Stevens, who contributed 18 points and eight assists in the win over the Lobos, is tracking for a spot on the Hotline’s midseason All-Best of the West team. He has been superb on a weekly basis.
4. San Diego State (11-2)
Last week: 9
Results: beat Gonzaga 84-74
NET ranking: No. 23
Next up: vs. Fresno State (Wednesday)
Comment: Notably, two of the Aztecs’ wins have come against teams outside Division I (Point Loma Nazarene and Saint Katherine) and thus aren’t included on their resume. In the eyes of the NCAA selection committee, SDSU is 9-2.
5. Colorado (11-2/2-0 Pac-12)
Last week: 5
Results: beat Washington 73-69 and WSU 74-67
NET ranking: No. 31
Next up: at Arizona (Thursday)
Comment: With forward Tristan da Silva seemingly unavailable this week (ankle), the Buffaloes need a massive performance from guard KJ Simpson to have a hint of a hope of a prayer of winning in Tucson.
6. Gonzaga (9-4)
Last week: 2
Results: lost to San Diego State 84-74
NET ranking: No. 57
Next up: vs. Pepperdine (Thursday)
Comment: The Hotline isn’t prepared to place the full weight of Gonzaga’s decline on the loss of ace recruiter Tommy Lloyd, who left for Arizona in the spring of 2021. But the impact of Lloyd’s departure cannot be ignored. The roster isn’t what it used to be.
7. Utah (11-2/2-0 Pac-12)
Last week: 7
Results: beat Washington State 80-58 and Washington 95-90
NET ranking: No. 18
Next up: at Arizona State (Thursday)
Comment: The Utes’ lofty NET ranking makes sense given the absence of bad losses and the presence of five Quadrant I and II victories.
8. Nevada (13-1)
Last week: 6
Results: beat Fresno Pacific 92-59
NET ranking: No. 34
Next up: vs. Fresno State (Saturday)
Comment: Nevada’s pursuit of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament depends partly on how well three of its conquests, Washington, TCU and Georgia Tech, perform in their respective conferences.
9. New Mexico (12-2/0-1 MW)
Last week: 8
Results: beat Eastern New Mexico 87-54, lost at Colorado State 76-68
NET ranking: No. 37
Next up: vs. Wyoming (Saturday)
Comment: Losing on the road to CSU is immaterial. Losing at home to Wyoming would be very, very material: Quadrant IV defeats are resume killers.
10. Utah State (13-1/1-0 MW)
Last week: 10
Results: beat Air Force 88-60
NET ranking: No. 26
Next up: vs. Colorado State (Saturday)
Comment: We should have a better feel for the Aggies by the middle of the month, following their home date with CSU and upcoming trips to Las Vegas and Albuquerque. If they survive unscathed, a top-four spot in the BOTW rankings awaits.
11. Oregon (10-3/2-0)
Last week: Not ranked
Results: beat USC 82-74 and UCLA 64-59
NET ranking: No. 72
Next up: at Washington (Thursday)
Comment: There is one major hole in Oregon’s resume: Eight of the 10 victories are of the Quadrant III and IV variety. The Ducks have numerous opportunities to correct that imbalance, starting Thursday in Seattle.
12. Grand Canyon (12-1/2-0 WAC)
Last week: 11
Results: beat Louisiana Tech 73-70
NET ranking: No. 41
Next up: at Southern Utah (Thursday)
Comment: If the Antelopes hold their position in the NET rankings through conference play, they would have a chance to reach the NCAA through the at-large pool. Given the competition in the WAC, that outcome seems unlikely: A single loss would be damaging.