Heed-worthy or hooey?

A year’s worth of good intentions lies ahead. Resolutions made as the ball dropped almost certainly included fresh promises to eat better and exercise more.

But keeping those resolutions requires more than strong will. Knowing which food trends are heed-worthy and which are hooey can be the difference between success and failure.

We asked food business observers what trends they anticipate in 2005. Health issues preoccupy everyone, they said, with the need for convenience close behind.

What else? Diet frenzies fade. Cookbooks focus on comfort food and family food. Pan-ethnic cooking marries diverse cultures. Organic and small-scale producers face a rosy future. The Internet gives everyone a kitchen assistant.

Sounds like a lively year!

1. Medifoods

“You can’t open a magazine or newspaper without seeing information about blueberries as antioxidants, pomegranate juice as an antioxidant, foods as medicines,” said Karen Caplan, president of the specialty produce company Frieda’s in Los Alamedos, Calif.

“All of a sudden, everybody’s about the health benefits. So there’s a huge interest in, and a realization that, eating food, as opposed to taking supplements, is better. Eating foods with more color is better than eating food that doesn’t have that. You’re going to see even more marketing aimed at the health benefits of food.”

2. Low-carb crash

“There’s still a lot of low-carb attention, although it’s beginning to wane a little,” said Michael Sansolo. He’s senior vice president of Food Marketing Institute in Washington, D.C., which represents food wholesalers and retailers. “We don’t know today what the hot diet will be. We are going to see more about trans fats, which will be on nutrition labels in 2006.” Trans fats can contribute to heart disease.

“A year ago, I was having an argument with someone, saying that Atkins is coming to an end,” said trend spotter Adam Hanft of Hanft Unlimited in Manhattan, a branding and advertising company. “When the food companies jump on the trend, it’s the beginning of the end. People are going to start to assemble their own dietary strategies, because of their frustrations with overhyped diets. Maybe we’re reaching a stage of moderation.”

3. Supermarket sous chef

Look for more prepped items in the produce aisles, such as chopped onions and bagged washed greens, and more high-quality starter kits (which you’ll combine with other ingredients for your own spin).

“We are so time-crunched that people want things that are portable,” said Karen Caplan of Frieda’s. “For example, a friend of mine made a terrific squash casserole by combining already cut-up butternut squash with some butternut squash soup. But she bought all the ingredients already prepped. I think there’s a resurgence of interest in home cooking. We don’t want to buy everything ready-made, but that doesn’t mean we don’t want some help.”

Supermarkets will respond by offering the help we need, said Michael Sansolo of Food Marketing Institute.

“We’re very time-pressed, so we continue to look for products that will help us get breakfast, lunch and dinner on the table,” he said.

4. Responsible shopping

“Baby boomers have pretty sophisticated palates, and they’ve rebelled against the macaroni-and-cheese and Jell-O of their parents,” said Adam Hanft of Hanft Unlimited. “Sophisticated palates can tell the difference between (frozen) prepared foods and takeout from a high-end supermarket (deli counter).”

Boomers and their adult children shop at organic and natural foods markets, he said, because they are “very focused on the (safety of) the food supply. “

It may be a tough year for traditional retailers, if Hanft is right. “I’m most interested in small new producers, watching the big tired brands trying to reinvent themselves and pretty much failing,” he said. “You’ve got WalMart and Target on one side, and Whole Foods and Wild Oats on the other; the traditional food markets are suffering, and they may deserve to.”

5. Artisan foods

Watch for new offerings from small organic and artisan producers, said Ron Tanner, vice president of communication and education for the National Association for the Specialty Food Trade and editor of Specialty Food magazine.

“Sales of some of the specialty cheeses have gone up about 40 percent over the past two years, and I think we’re going to see a continuation of that,” Tanner said. “Organics have been growing tremendously – the industry has grown 24 percent a year from 2001 to 2003. Artisan breads continue to grow; they’re out-pacing regular breads. In every city, it seems, there’s an artisan bakery getting its products out to the public, and into high-end supermarkets.”

6. Cookbook fever

Lynn Andriani, a forecasts editor at book-publishing bible Publishers Weekly, isn’t so sure that low-carb is on its way out.

“Is Atkins over or isn’t it? The New York Times reported that sales of low-carb products was starting to wane, but I have to say it doesn’t seem that publishers are stopping publishing those kinds of books,” she said. “And there’s an Atkins tell-all bio due out this month – that will get a lot of media coverage.”

As one of four nonfiction editors, Andriani handles cookbook reviews for the magazine. “This fall was especially strong for cookbooks,” she said, “and a lot of them were personal reminiscences, like ‘The Pat Conroy Cookbook’ and Maya Angelou’s ‘Hallelujah! The Welcome Table: A Lifetime of Memories with Recipes.’

“I’ve also seen a big emphasis on cooking for the family. Jamie Oliver had a book out about cooking for his family, and so does Lidia Bastianich. Emeril has done a comfort-foods cookbook, and that fits in there too. So the idea is, gathering the family to eat together.”

7. Pan-ethnic cooking

The trend toward ethnicity and increasing simplicity is unstoppable, said Adam Hanft of Hanft Unlimited, “because much of that trend is driven by immigrants themselves. The youth culture is used to multi-ethnic pastiches, like in music and in clothing,” and that trend will only widen.

“With all the different cultures, there are no borders any more,” agreed Karen Caplan of Frieda’s. “We’ll see more cross-pollination between flavors and cuisines. I’m also seeing the small pockets of countries that have fabulous styles beginning to be well-known. We know tapas from Spain and Portugal, but now it’s ‘food from the Ukraine,’ for example.”

8. Rapid market response

Supermarkets see the interest in organics and in small producers, and will respond, said Michael Sansolo, senior vice president of Food Marketing Institute, which represents grocers.

“We see the trends that are developing, and try to meet them,” he said. “If people want more locally grown and organic foods, you’ll see more in your supermarkets, too. I remind people to talk to their store manager; if they don’t get your feedback, they can’t know what you want.”

Grocery stores have to respond quickly to change, Sansolo said. Most industry observers say supermarkets operate at profit margins of only 1 to 2 percent, so stubborn adherence to the status quo can shutter a market. “In some cases, neighborhoods can change in their composition very quickly,” Sansolo said. “That may mean supermarkets will need to stock different ingredients and spices and produce, so they have to be responsive. How people change, that’s how we change.”

9. Nutritious nibbles

“Americans have always snacked a lot, but now, instead of eating a bag of Lay’s, they’re looking for specialty chips or pretzels,” said Ron Tanner of Specialty Food magazine.

But when people follow low-carb diets, they skip the chips and reach for dairy products and nuts, Tanner said. Even if they ditch the diet, they retain their preference for more nutritious snacks.

“As people cut down on carbs, they substitute dairy and nuts,” he said. “There has been a growth in specialty dairy products, like milk in glass bottles, organic milks and fortified eggs and yogurts with added vitamins.”

As good as those things are, they don’t satisfy America’s sweet tooth. For that, Tanner said, “dried fruits – raisins, prunes, apricots – have emerged as an alternative to candies.”

One caveat: Nuts and dried fruits are high in calories. It’s easy to overdo it with both foods.

10. Get ‘n’ go organics

Watch for more organic fast-food restaurants and chains, and more existing restaurants adding organic offerings to their menus. McDonald’s added organic milk to its British menus early in 2003.

Restaurants & Institutions magazine reported that Mexican fast-casual chain Chipotle (which McDonald’s owns) is seeking organic sources for its beans, and has added organic pork carnitas to its menus. The pork is more expensive, raising its menu price to $5.50 from $4.60.

“We did a comparison tasting and the organic product is more flavorful, juicier and full-bodied,” said Joe Stupp, an executive with the Denver-based chain, in an interview with R & I. The company heard “not a peep” from customers, who apparently “feel the jump (in price) is worth it.”

Meanwhile, Gary Hirshberg, founder of Stonyfield Farm, has begun a small (three locations) chain of organic fast-food restaurants in New England called O’Naturals. Hirshberg expanded Stonyfield, which sells natural, organic yogurt, from five cows to a national brand.

With menu items ranging from Asian noodles to soups, salads and sandwiches plus a kids’ menu, O’Naturals aims to capture some of the harried-parent takeout market.