Year of the sequel

Take a close look at some of the most anticipated films of 2006, and you’ll notice something interesting in the titles.

A two. Or a three. Sometimes a four.

That’s because this year’s slate of high-profile movies will be bloated with 40 sequels, spinoffs and big-budget remakes.

It’s not unusual for Hollywood to rely on franchise installments to generate its biggest profits; there were 44 such movies last year, 34 the year before that, according to Nielsen EDI.

What is unusual is how much pressure studios are placing on the retreads to halt the industry’s three-year attendance skid.

And some already are concerned that 2006 isn’t up to the task.

“You look at the slate, and it doesn’t appear to be that different from last year,” says Brandon Gray of Box Office Mojo. “Hollywood has been letting moviegoers down, and I’m not seeing anything that screams that’s going to change.”

Even studio executives, who publicly are some of the most optimistic people on the planet, concede that the battle against the box office slide is an uphill one.

“Everyone feels confident about the movies they’ve got going in,” says Jeff Blake, vice chairman of Sony Pictures. “But I admit, there is little margin for error. Our big movies are going to have to come through if it’s going to add up for the studios and the industry this year.”

The numbers added up to some sad figures in 2005, with attendance down 7 percent from the previous year, the third straight year of declining ticket sales.

And 2005 was supposed to be the year that turned things around. If “Star Wars,” “Batman” and “Harry Potter” don’t reverse your fortunes, what will?

Those franchises won’t be back this year, and “Spider-Man,” “Shrek” and “Potter” won’t return until 2007.

“I don’t see us beating last year,” says Bruce Snyder, head of distribution for 20th Century Fox. “We don’t have a ‘Star Wars’ or ‘Harry Potter,’ and that’s $700 million right there. That’s a big chunk to make up.”

If 2006 becomes the year that saves the day, it will do so with at least 21 sequels, 16 remakes and 10 animated films.

That has some analysts nervous that Hollywood has run out of ideas – and audiences are running out of patience.

“I do believe that box office is going to come back,” says Ed Mince of CinemaScore, the audience polling firm. “But sequels are not the salvation. The potential audience for those is limited.”

That has never stopped Hollywood before. And of the five films most analysts and executives agree will be the hits of the year, four are sequels or new spins on old films:

“”Mission: Impossible 3” (May 5): Say what you will about Tom Cruise’s couch-hopping love confessionals, the guy still packs theaters. His “War of the Worlds” took in $234.3 million last year, the fourth biggest movie of 2005.

“”The Da Vinci Code” (May 19): The only original film of the bunch, Dan Brown’s best seller has blockbuster written all over it, particularly with the audience-friendly team of producer Brian Grazer and star Tom Hanks behind the project.

“”X-Men: The Last Stand” (May 26): This has been one of the comic-book world’s most lucrative franchises, and fans are expected to turn out for what is believed to be the team’s swan song.

“”Superman Returns” (June 30): The Man of Steel is the most iconic action hero of our time, and expectations are just as mighty for this film, directed by Bryan Singer (“X-Men,” “X-2”).

“”Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” (July 7): Disney already has a franchise planned for this film, with a third due in 2007.

Studio executives are high on a number of other films, including Pixar’s next animated film, “Cars”; “The Poseidon Adventure” remake “Poseidon”; and the television adaptation “Miami Vice.”

But the concept of what makes for a sure-fire hit is changing. Last year, Hollywood learned the hard way that big-budget action isn’t enough when costly movies such as “Stealth,” “The Island” and “XXX: State of the Union” flopped.

That showed that young men, once the core of first-weekend audiences, are leaving Hollywood in droves, says Robert Bucksbaum of industry tracking firm Reelsource.

“Fewer films are going to be marketed solely to that audience,” Bucksbaum says. “The new demographic is the elderly, families and people on dates.

“I’m heartened to see there are 10 animated movies this year,” he adds. “I think 2006 is going to see the beginning of that shift.”

While analysts and executives express surprising confidence in the summer slate, it’s the fall and winter that has everyone concerned.

Summer 2005 was the year’s downfall. Ticket sales dropped 9 percent from the previous season, and Hollywood never caught up.

“We don’t have a ‘Star Wars’ this summer, but we’ve got ‘Superman’ and ‘X-Men,’ ” says Gitesh Pandya of BoxOfficeGuru.com. “We don’t have Tom Cruise in ‘War of the Worlds,’ but we’ve got him in ‘Mission: Impossible 3.’ A good summer could turn things around in a big way.”

Pandya and others are less bullish on the last part of 2006. While 2005 had an all-star cast in November and December – including “Potter,” “Kong” and “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” – this year’s fall lineup looks short on hits.

The only film analysts are wagering on thus far is the latest installment of the James Bond series, “Casino Royale,” due Nov. 17.

“I’m confident in our summer, and that we’ll get a lead over last year,” says John Fithian, head of the National Association of Theatre Owners. “If there’s a question, it’s whether we can hold it when we get to October and November. Then we’re holding our breaths a little.”

As are a lot of people in the movie business.

“Look, we know people still like the movies,” says Revolution Studios’ Tom Sherak. “We just have to see how they want to see their movies now, and what kind of movies they want to see.

“I’m cautiously optimistic. And as fast as things are changing in the movies, that’s about the best you can hope for.”