A Grip on Sports: High school football recruiting is still the key to success, though not as much as it was pre-transfer portal and NIL days

A GRIP ON SPORTS • Want to know how college football programs build winners? Recruiting. Enticing the best players to their campuses. Of course, there are different roads leading to TitleTown U. these days. Wednesday’s high school classes are less important on the journey than they have ever been.

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• If you are a Penn State fan, you certainly hope that last sentence is true. The Nittany Lions, who called recently wondering if I were interested in their head coaching position, signed two recruits yesterday. Two.

By the way, it was a wrong number. But I still would have said no. Just like everyone else the school has contacted.

Anyhow, the players of tomorrow picked their school this week. Maybe their first school, sure. But theirs for now.

Washington State added 28 newcomers. Eastern Washington signed half that, but the Eagles’ included the younger brother of a current NBA star. Idaho added 20 early risers. And Washington? The Huskies had their highest-rated class in modern history. At least that’s what the headline says.

Yes, we are not all that sold on signing day. Never really have been. But there is no denying there is a correlation between talent and success. And despite all the high-profile recruiting misses we’ve observed over the years, in the aggregate, highly rated classes usually pan out.

If you are wondering who will compete for the national title down the road, look at yesterday’s road marker. It’s historically pretty accurate.

The transfer portal has changed the map – hello, Indiana – though, as has the ability to pay players. Those two modern marvels make building an overnight success story possible, even without a special high school class – and allows us to repeat one sentence we wrote earlier.

If you are a Penn State fan, you certainly hope that last sentence is true.

• Speaking of success, who is winning this weekend? Though we rarely do this, we thought it was a great day to take a swing at picking winners. Not for betting purposes – we don’t do that and wish no one did – but for giggles. With an eye on College Football Playoff chaos.

Friday night, expect James Madison and North Texas to win the Sun Belt and American conference title games, respectively. Though both are losing their head coaches, Bob Chesney to UCLA and former WSU assistant Eric Morris to Oklahoma State, which gives us pause. But to stir the CFP pot as much as possible, those are our two picks.

Saturday? One “for sure” is top-ranked Ohio State. Every darn week. The Buckeyes will expose Francisco Mendoza’s weaknesses – remember, he started his college career at Cal – and hand Indiana its first loss. BYU will reverse its early season deer-in-the-headlights look from the Lubbock visit and upset Texas Tech. Georgia also reverses the regular season result, topping Alabama 24-21 in Atlanta. And Duke continues its hot streak by edging Virginia on a last-second field goal, eliminating the ACC from the playoffs. Maybe.

What does that leave for the CFP committee? A bunch of awful choices. As it should be. The top five conference champions earn automatic berths. They would have to be Ohio State, Georgia, BYU, North Texas and James Madison.

The other seven at-large berths? Indiana, which drops to fourth and retains a bye. Oregon, which stays fifth-overall due to its loss at home to Indiana (which will turn out to be a win for the Ducks in the playoffs).

Ole Miss and Texas A&M, sixth and seventh, are in, as the SEC deserves it. Texas Tech should survive, though the Red Raiders may be sacrificed so the committee can keep Notre Dame in.

See, that would be the only way, as the final spot, if Texas Tech stayed a part of the field, would have to come down to Miami and the Irish. And then, finally, would the head-to-head result have to matter. The solution? Toss the Big 12 runner-up and let both in.

Wait, we missed someone. The SEC can’t have just three schools. That’s un-American. Alabama or Texas has to be included. Or even Vanderbilt. After all, what better way to prove “it just means more” than to have the conference’s academic representative edge out a second Big 12 school for the final spot.

Hello, chaos. The CFP deserves to be your forever home.

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WSU: We mentioned the Cougars’ football recruiting class above. And linked Greg Woods’ story. We link it again here. … The women’s basketball team’s tough season start continued, as BYU hit a last-second jumper for a 56-54 win in Provo. … Elsewhere in the (current, old and future) Pac-12 and the nation, Jon Wilner’s column in the S-R looks at the coaching carousel and its winners and losers. The Cougars did not take a ride this year. … Oregon State did and chose JaMarcus Shephard, who has fought his way to the top, a battle that had roots in Pullman under Mike Leach. Shephard and the Beavs also battled on the recruiting front. … As we linked above, Washington’s recruiting class was well-received by the recruiting services. … Wilner has a great story in the Mercury News today about extra money being sent California’s way for the athletic department by the university system. … John Canzano has a notes column we can pass along. … Oregon had another highly rated recruiting class. And will have its coordinators through the playoffs. … USC is No. 1. In recruiting. Now there will be even more pressure on Lincoln Riley. See my thoughts above. … UCLA is still dealing with its coaching change. In recruiting. … Utah signed a large class, but is still waiting on two key recruits. … Ten signees? Colorado is in Penn State territory. But it has a coach. … Utah State mined local talent in its class. … Boise State expects a lot from its latest quarterback recruit. … San Diego State attracted most of its recruiting class from California. … Did Colorado State attract anyone? … The transfer portal will everyone. Including Arizona State. … Arizona had a great November. 

• In basketball news, Washington’s men opened Big Ten play Wednesday night and lost to UCLA despite a late comeback. … Oregon State snapped its five-game slide by shooting down Vermont. … Colorado is keeping everyone guessing. … How is Arizona doing so well? … Utah State is headed on a long road trip. … San Diego State righted the ship with a win over Utah Valley. … The undefeated Oregon women hosted Oregon State and won handily. OSU coach Scott Rueck doesn’t want to play the Ducks anymore, at least for a while. … Stanford hosted 19th-ranked Tennessee and fell 65-62 in a game notable by who wasn’t on the sidelines more than anything else. … The Arizona women suffered their first loss. 

Gonzaga: It’s not often the Zags under Mark Few are run out of a gym. It happened in Las Vegas, though, courtesy of Michigan. How will they respond Friday night against Kentucky? Theo Lawson decided to look back in the school’s history for some clues. … Greg Lee’s weekly women’s basketball notebook leads off with a look at the Bulldogs’ second bulldog of a freshman post, Jaiden Haile. The true freshman has been a physical inside presence for the team. … Elsewhere in the WCC, Santa Clara is really good. And honored a legacy player last night.

EWU: We also linked Eastern’s football recruiting story from Dan Thompson in the first part of this column. We also link it here too in case you missed it. … The men let a late lead slip away at Denver yesterday while the Eagle women turned the tables against the Pioneers in Cheney. … Elsewhere in the Big Sky, Cal Poly hired a new football coach. It is Tim Skipper, who served as UCLA’s interim coach much of this season. … Montana is still prepping for its FCS playoff opener. … Montana State added recruiting success to its on-field success. … Northern Colorado signed a half-dozen players. … In basketball news, the Griz men have lost four consecutive games though the women snapped their long losing streak. … The Montana State men held off St. Thomas at home. The women lost at North Dakota State. … The Northern Colorado women have used the nonconference season to gain experience. … The Portland State men lost at home to South Dakota. 

Idaho: Peter Harriman’s story about the Vandals’ football signing class? Linked above. And here too. … Peter also has coverage of UI’s win over visiting North Dakota in men’s action from the Big Sky-Summit Challenge. … The Vandal women fell at home to Oral Roberts, 92-89.  

Preps: Dave Nichols has a roundup of the local basketball action.

Chiefs: Dave also has coverage of Spokane’s latest loss, 2-1 at Everett. The losses are starting to pile up again.

Seahawks: Are the Hawks too reliant on Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Aren’t there other weapons available for the offense? … Do you care if Seattle covers the 7.5-point spread? Or is just winning enough? … Roster moves are really weird. … So are NFL ratings. Who would have thought the Dallas game with KC on Thanksgiving would draw 57 million viewers? Oh, right. Everyone.

Storm: The WNBA and its players are still talking. But getting a collective bargaining agreement hammered out is taking a long time and seems to be hung up on some big bumps.

Mariners: The M’s main thrust at the Winter Meetings? Relief pitchers.

Sounders: Dany Leyva seems to be in line for increased playing time next season. But he also seems to be in line to leave for Mexico.

Reign: Unless the NWSL changes its rules, more and more stars will be leaving to go overseas.  

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• Do I really believe all of the conference-title-game upsets chronicled above will happen. No. It is wishful thinking. And isn’t that what happens this time of year for everyone? Wishful thinking? If Santa is reading this, I would love to get one of those BMW electric SUVs for Christmas. Just saying. Though I presume I have as much chance with that as I have of getting all the football games correct. Until later …